top of page

Can Biden Beat Trump?

That's the question on every political analysts' mind.

We found the ceiling for social democrats and an a non democratic candidate in the Democratic Party, and it's well below a majority. Now the race consolidated, and Joseph Biden is coasting to a nomination. Analysts continue to debate the strengths and weaknesses.

We've got two almost octogenarian white males battling for your vote, with the Libertarian and Green races still wide open.

So the main question that matters, is can Biden actually beat Trump? After reading much of the political talking head chatter, I've boiled down the crux of the arguments on each side.

Biden's Case

  • Trump has failed to expand his base, and is seeing continued erosion of support in the suburbs - so any democrat who didn't rile up and turn out Trump supporters underrunning a generic democrat probably beats him.

  • Biden is not Hillary Clinton, with such high negatives, especially in the key midwestern rust belt states that swung the last election.

  • His swift consolidation of the Democrat primary despite fundraising and organization issues and all is flaws, has created momentum, he isn't just a compromise, Biden's finally learned how to win.

  • Trump's own 2016 win proved branding and unaddressed voter concerns can beat money and organization. This time he's on the outside looking in.

  • He's won before as VP, and is a known and safe pair of hands that some moderate Republicans who are not highly supportive of Trump can either support, or at least not show up in droves to fight off like they would Sanders or a more left wing or less liked candidate.

  • He will turn out the African American vote that didn't show up for Hillary in 2016 after helping carry the Obama victories.

  • Democratic will turn out in droves to stop Trump, and Biden doesn't turn them off or drive the negative passion from Republicans that boosted Ted Cruz or Beto o'Rourke, and Trump over Clinton.

  • He is better across the board with independents, non white voters, and women, than Trump.

  • The poor coronavirus response and coming economic downturn has finally popped Trump's Teflon bubble.

  • His strengths match up well against Trump's weaknesses on foreign policy, steady personality, alienation of non white and college educated voters, and also and match up well to blunt Trump's strength in midwestern non college educated working class voters that Trump badly needs.

  • America is done with the erratic, Trump experiment.

Biden's Flaws, the Case for 4 More Years

  • He has gotten schooled every time he ran for President before, and only emerged this time from a Democratic field that had already narrowed to a list of deeply flawed candidates. The races he has won in Delware were so tiny as to be not comparable, or rode President Obama's coattails.

  • He's just not a good candidate. His organization is weak, fundraising weak, and he just hasn't shown he handle a national campaign either now or ever.

  • Being not the other guy just isn't enough, without also a clear vision for why you're the right candidate. Voter passion wins races, and it just isn't there for Biden.

  • He's old, prone to gaffes and errors and just doesn't have it anymore, making him look like a boring insider version of Trump.

  • He has fatal weaknesses that are eerily similar to many of Trump's: old, white, gaffe prone, history of family members benefiting from his political position, and weak with women and younger voters, without the passionate stick it to Washington base to offset it.

  • He is the ultimate Washington insider in an era voters from both parties don't trust Washington or insiders, and have swung their momentum behind outsiders.

  • America is done with boring institutionalist insiders.

  • Nobody cares anymore, voters are done with both parties and the apathy vote will climb, so this will be a lower turnout race where Trump's base is enough.

It will be fun to watch, with massive implications.

1 Comment

Thomas Krehmeier
Thomas Krehmeier
Mar 17, 2020

Who cares about either. Neither one can beat the President.

bottom of page